NBP survey: how high inflation to expect in 2020.

NBP conducted its sentiment survey. It asked think tanks what average annual CPI inflation they expect in 2020. [...] https://www.pinterest.com/pin/1085437947660215829/

NBP conducted its sentiment survey. It asked think tanks what average annual CPI inflation they expect in 2020. NBP and inflation survey "The aggregate distribution of CPI inflation forecasts suggests that there is an 85 percent probability that average annual inflation in 2020 will be above the NBP's inflation target. The central scenario is 3.3 per cent, and the boundaries of the 50-per cent probability range are 2.8 per cent and 3.8 per cent. For 2021, the central scenario (equal to 2.3 per cent) is not well-defined: values in the range of 1.3-3.2 per cent, which coincides with the 50-per cent probability range, are equally likely". - wrote the document summarizing the survey. "In contrast, values between 2.3 percent and 3.3 percent seem most likely for inflation forecasts for 2022, with typical scenarios also allowing inflation to form slightly below this range (the 50 percent probability range is 1.6-3.3 percent). The central scenario for CPI inflation in 2022 is 2.5 percent." - it added. Poland's GDP Economists also expect Poland's GDP growth to fall by 3.6 percent in 2020, but rebound by 3.7 percent in 2021. "Surveyed experts are confident that Poland will experience a recession in 2020 (probability equal to 92 percent). According to the typical scenarios, i.e. those included in the 50 percent probability range, the depth of recession can be estimated at between -5.0 percent and -1.8 percent. In 2021, GDP growth rates can be expected between 2.1 percent and 5.2 percent, while in 2022. - In 2021, we can expect a GDP growth rate between 2.1 per cent and 5.2 per cent, and in 2022 - between 1.9 per cent and 4.2 per cent (these are the limits of the 50 per cent probability range)," the NBP concluded. - concluded the NBP. "The central scenarios for the respective years are -3.6 percent for 2020, 3.7 percent for 2021 and 3.1 percent for 2022, with a weak outline. Recessionary scenarios in 2021-2022 are not completely ruled out, but the probability of negative GDP growth remains very low, equal to 11 percent in 2021 and 9 percent in 2022." - it added. Interest rates Interest rates in Poland, in turn, are expected to remain unchanged in 2020-2021 (the central forecast for 2021 is 0.16%), according to experts surveyed by the NBP. The summer round of the NBP Macroeconomic Survey lasted from 15 June to 3 July. It was attended by 22 experts, representing various financial institutions, academic institutions, trade union and business organization. Tags inflation NBP nbp survey