The US election is virtually decided. In theory, Joe Biden has more electors behind him, so he will be sworn in at their convention as the new US president. The world has breathed a sigh of relief, as a large number of analysts believe that he will pursue a more peaceful US-China policy. But is war between the two superpowers really no longer a threat? And if it does happen, how will the Bitcoin exchange rate behave? Joe Biden wins the election in the USA. What does it mean? Joe Biden has the reputation and image of a nice, older gentleman. "The perfect vice president" - even his critics described him. Probably in private he is just like that. But soon he will be at the head of a superpower that has its interests all over the world. Today those interests are threatened especially in Asia, where the power of China is most keenly felt. But is it really up to the president to decide what will happen in US politics in the next four years? It is a mistake to think of any contemporary political leader of a country as an early medieval king whose country is his private property. Jacek Bartosiak, a Polish geopolitics expert, noted this during an interview on Radio Wnet. "The biggest politicians are just agents of big structural forces and their interests," - he said during the interview, which concerned the change of US policy if Biden wins the election (it took place before the election itself). Thus, Biden's victory does not rule out anything. What is more, today it is forgotten that it was during Barack Obama's term of office that the U.S. made the so-called pivot to the Pacific. Already then the Washington elite understood one thing: as a result of globalization China became too strong, while the U.S. started to lose a lot. Something had to be done about it. Donald Trump's actions were only a continuation of this type of thinking and acting, albeit in a more aggressive manner. Moreover, Biden himself - also during the Obama presidency - spoke of China's power as a great challenge for the US. Are preparations for war already underway? The aforementioned Bartosiak also mentioned during an interview he gave to the historian Piotr Zychowicz that "war is in the air. If someone suggests that it is just 'scaremongering' it is enough to listen to other politicians and experts. Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, for example, wrote an article that was published in the prestigious American periodical devoted to international relations, Foreign Affairs, in which he described the risk of an armed conflict between the U.S. and China as "particularly high. He even feared that war would break out before the election itself. "Is Australia prepared for an armed conflict with the region?" - Paul Dibb, professor emeritus of strategic studies at the Australian National University, former deputy defence secretary and head of the defence intelligence agency, asked in The Australian. "The likelihood of a surprise attack is greater in an era of rising nationalism, territorial claims and increased armaments. Our territorial defenses must be better prepared for high-intensity conflict so that they are ready to contribute militarily outside our territory but in the region of engagement of our interests. This involves deploying our forces throughout the Indo-Pacific, including North Asia." - Dibb explained. The flashpoint of the war need not specifically be China's trade disputes with the US. The Middle Kingdom competes in the region with Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines over a disputed 3.5 million square kilometer portion of the South China Sea. It's not just about controlling flows. This is an area rich in fossil fuels. It is also home to a huge fishery. In addition, let's remember that Taiwan still maintains a political separation from mainland China. President Xi Jinping - now 67 years old - may dream that it is during his reign that the Middle Kingdom will finally be reunited. The U.S. will not be able to look on such actions passively. Finally, it is worth recalling that the fruit of rivalry - initially only economic - between the superpowers has almost always been war. It is enough to mention just the first, almost classic, examples: the Peloponnesian War, the Franco-German War of 1870, World Wars I and II. Even the Cold War itself was really a collection of minor armed conflicts involving "pawns" belonging to the USSR and the USA. Finally, it is worth adding a brief lesson from history. The president who won his re-election with promises to keep the US out of the war was Franklin D. Roosevelt. As we know today, it was ultimately during his presidency that the United States became involved in World War II (after the attack on Pearl Harbor, of course, but which the US elite could have avoided by apparently looking for a reason to send troops to the Pacific and then to Europe). Bitcoin in wartime Now let's move on to something rather important, looking from an investor's perspective. How would bitcoin behave if war broke out between the US and China?
No comments:
Post a Comment