Tuesday, June 1, 2021

NBP President no longer credible on his inflation forecasts?

In Poland, January saw the biggest jump in inflation in years. The Monetary Policy Council continues not to raise interest rates, and some [...] https://www.pinterest.com/pin/1085437947660215829/

In Poland, January saw the biggest jump in inflation in years. The Monetary Policy Council still does not raise interest rates, and some of its representatives believe that the matter will normalize by mid-year. But is this true? And the second question: is the NBP president still credible in the eyes of Poles and experts? NBP President criticized by an expert On money.pl website you can watch an interview with Janusz Jankowiak, chief economist of Polish Business Roundtable. It turns out that he no longer believes in forecasts concerning future prices made by Adam Glapiński, NBP President. - Inflation in Poland is currently at 4.4%, and forecasts say that it will rise even higher - said in the program "Money. It counts", chief economist of the Polish Business Roundtable. - Now the question is what inflationary expectations of households will be triggered by this growth. Because it affects, among other things, expectations for wages and other price increases, which were unchanged in the first phase. These expectations can be controlled by the central bank through interest rate increases. More and more MPC members are of the opinion that such a decision should be made, and there will be more of them. There is also a problem with the credibility of Professor Adam Glapiński, the chairman of the MPC, because three months ago he said that inflation in Poland would not exceed 3.5% over the next few months. A month ago, he said that it would not exceed 4%. I am already afraid of every statement made by the chairman - he says. Inflation in Poland is the highest in years His criticism is right. One can slowly get the impression that the MPC has lost control over inflation. Panic and hyperinflation are still a long way off, but we have reasons to worry. Inflation can still now be further driven by recent macroeconomic and political events, i.e. uncertainty related to the trade war between the US and China, the coronavirus or unrest in the Middle East. However, there is another element to this. Raising interest rates will not be a popular decision. The more so as most Poles probably do not understand the mechanisms that govern the market and the exchange rate of the zloty. So maybe the MPC does not want to raise interest rates because there is still an election campaign going on in our country? After all, Adam Glapiński comes from the camp of the United Right and he would rather Andrzej Duda became president again. He also said that raising interest rates might not be well received by the electorate... Tags inflation inflation in Poland NBP

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