Saturday, June 5, 2021

Inflation is on the rise - we know the preliminary estimate of the Central Statistical Office

Inflation is still high and there is no indication that it will stop in terms of the longer term. Inflation [...] https://www.pinterest.com/pin/1085437947660215829/

Inflation is still high and there is no indication that it will stop in terms of the longer term. Inflation still high We already know the preliminary data of the Central Statistical Office (GUS) concerning inflation. According to the report, consumer prices increased by 3.0 per cent year-on-year in October. The information was provided by GUS on Friday in the so-called quick estimate. Compared to August, prices are higher by 0.1 percent. On the other hand, a month ago, the annual inflation was 3.2 percent. At that time, it was a record in the scale of Europe. However, it is worth reminding that the exact calculations will be known in about 14 days. It is unlikely that they will be radically different. Why is inflation rising? Theoretically, during a crisis such as the one we are experiencing now, inflation should not increase, because consumers spend less. But as we have already written, central banks and governments seem to want to "print" this crisis. Empty money is being put on the market. And it is not only about the policy pursued by the National Bank of Poland, but also about what we see in the USA or the EU. Our central bank wants to rescue markets that are suffering from restrictions. In September alone, the money supply (M1 - cash money and current deposits) increased by as much as 25 billion zlotys, i.e. 1.7 percent, which is still nothing, as since the beginning of the year it has increased by 299 billion zlotys, i.e. 25.9 percent. The supply of currency is increasing, which, according to economic laws, must lead to price jumps. It is also known that electricity has recently risen most rapidly, and this must begin to be reflected in the prices of all products and services. A year ago, we paid for it by as much as 4.8 percent less. Compared to September - by 0.3 percent. In addition, from 1 January 2021 we will start to pay the so-called "power fee", which was originally supposed to come into force in October. The date was changed due to the pandemic. Analysts at mBank Research believe that they were surprised by the increase in energy prices. However, they think that by the end of the year the inflation will be within the NBP target of 2.5 per cent. Tags prices inflation NBP

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